SOUTH EAST ZONE
In the five states of the South-East: Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo, the fever of the PDP presidential primaries is high, as the people of the region know full well the enormous strength the party would exert in the 2011 presidential polls.
For the people in the five states and the entire Igbo nation, their support naturally for Jonathan and Atiku would have been highly depended on the one that would serve well the Igbo quest of ascending the presidency in 2015. The Igbo, both at home and in the Diaspora, are unanimous in the clamour for a president of Igbo extraction in 2015. Therefore, among the Igbo, there are many who think that the North serving out their eight years, which President Umar Yar’Adua left vacant when he died midway before the end of the first leg of the eight years, would best serve the Igbo 2015 agenda. This school of thought, among the Igbo, has mainly those supporting Atiku’s presidential bid.
In fact, the five South-East governors: Chief Theodore Orji, Mr. Peter Obi, Chief Martin Elechi, Dr. Sullivan Chime and Chief Ikedi Ohakim had, at their South East Governors’ Forum, in July, agreed not to run for the presidency or offer themselves to serve as vice president, apparently to keep the Igbo dream in 2015 alive. Then, the five governors had also agreed to Jonathan, just as the pan-Igbo socio-cultural organisation, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, did.
For political analysts, since governors Orji, Ohakim, Chime and Elechi have declared to support Jonathan, Atiku will be having a tough time in the primaries, since these governors are the party leaders in their states.
Saturday Sun survey in the five states showed that the PDP primaries battle will essentially favour Jonathan. Here are the intrigues and permutations in the region that would shape the outcome of the PDP presidential primaries.
Anambra State
The crisis rocking the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Anambra State, our correspondent, Geoffrey Anyanwu, reports, would make it difficult for Jonathan and Atiku to be sure of block support from the state. Today, two executives are laying claim to the leadership of the party in the state, with Chief Emma Nweze leading the newly inaugurated executive by the national leadership of the party and Chief Benji Udeozor leading another group that is laying claim to a court order reinstating them as the authentic executive.
Though Jonathan and Atiku have coordinators in the state, they have not identified with any of the two executives, a situation that made them to now run their respective campaign organisations independent of the party. Investigations revealed that Jonathan’s campaign organisation in the state cuts the picture of the broken China in the sun, as it has cohesion, but lacks a common front. At every nook and cranny of the state, one could see pockets of offices, perceived to be the secretariats of his campaign organisation. The Jonathan’s bug did not even spare the ruling All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) in the state, as some of its members have continued to hobnob with the Presidency. For Atiku, there are no visible supporters yet. However, with the crisis in the party at the state level, it is obvious that those at the party’s national headquarters would decide what happens. This would, no doubt, place Jonathan at advantage because it is likely that the Dr Okwesilieze Nwodo-led National Working Committee (NWC) would only recognise the state executive led by Chief Nweze it recently put in place.
Also, with the fear that the national leadership would work for the president, many in the state believe that the majority of the delegates from Anambra will queue behind Jonathan.
Enugu State
Our correspondent, Petrus Obi reports that President Jonathan and Atiku have, in one way or the other, penetrated Enugu State, as they battle to clinch the PDP presidential ticket. The three aspirants have also had a fair share of offices opened by different groups in the struggle over who coordinates the campaigns of the leading aspirants. However, deciding who gets the votes of the people of the state goes beyond posters, banners or number of campaign offices, as this would rather be determined by the different power blocks in the state, especially within the PDP.
The blocks led by prominent politicians, such as the immediate past governor of the state, Senator Chimaroke Nnamani; former governor of old Anambra State, Senator Jim Nwobodo; former Senate President, Ken Nnamani; Governor Sullivan Chime; National Chairman of the PDP, Dr Nwodo; and Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu, are having different interests, which point to the fact that the votes from the state would be split.
Currently, Senators Nwobodo and Ken Nnamani have been working closely. The two are believed to have pitched tent with Babangida/Atiku group and are reported to have been attending meetings in the North from where they have been given the mandate to convince the people of the South-East on the need to support a northern candidate. With their influence in the state, their power block is potent enough to garner votes for Atiku.
When the wife of President Jonathan visited Enugu State on September 13, Chime openly declared his support for Jonathan. Chime had also led the caucus of the PDP in the state to endorse President Jonathan as their candidate, on the eve of the visit of the First Lady. He had told the caucus that Jonathan was the only person who has told him of his intention to vie for the presidency.
Many believe that Chime, as the leader of the party in the state, will play a very vital role in determining who wins the majority votes from the state during the primaries. The Chime block will get a boost from the support of Senator Ekweremadu, who had resisted all efforts to cause rift between him and the governor ahead of the 2011 general elections. He has always pledged support to the state government, and his support for the president has also been very strong and unwavering, particularly as it has become obvious that this would guarantee his return to the Senate for the third term.
Another formidable camp in the state is the PDP national chairman’s block. There appears to be no love lost between the national party chairman and Governor Chime. This has been traced to the forthcoming primaries, where supporters and allies of Nwodo are fighting to ensure that the state party executive is reconstituted to accommodate his group. Although Nwodo is seen as a believer in the Jonathan project, which manifested in the way he supported the take-over of Abia State and its Governor Orji, his relationship with Governor Chime, ahead of the party primaries, will largely contribute in deciding who Enugu PDP will give support among IBB, Atiku and Jonathan.
Another factor in the PDP primaries in the state is the Ebeano political group nurtured by former Governor Nnamani. The Ebeano group has come alive again in the state when everybody thought it was dead and buried. The recent police brutality and intimidation meted out to the former governor and his supporters, during his recent return to the state, have not deterred him from his resolve in the 2011 project, which is to unseat his estranged godson, Chime. The Agbani chief and senator, since he returned to the state, has been meeting with his supporters.A part of the Ebeano group is working with Nwodo, for Jonathan, while the other part has registered a political party, Peopes for Democratic Change (PDC), with which to fight the political battle in the state.
Although the state’s House of Assembly endorsed Atiku, when he met with the lawmakers, and later withdrew the support, the chances of the former vice president are slim in the state.
Abia State
In Abia, our correspondent, Chuks Onuoha reports, it is was only Babangida and Jonathan whose intention to run for the presidency is felt. Nothing much was heard of the Atiku people. In fact, there is no group seen to be supporting or campaigning for him. The way things are in the state, President Jonathan has an edge in the state, especially since Governor T. A. Orji defected from APGA to PDP. Some months ago, a group called Friends for Democracy for Goodluck Jonathan held a rally in Abia, where it gave reasons the president should be re-elected. Jonathan already has a massive campaign headquarters along Finbers road, Umuahia. The campaign slogan that is making waves in the state now is that a vote for T.A. Orji means a support for Jonathan. The snag for Jonathan is that many Abia indigenes believe that Governor Orji has not achieved anything in three and half years and may not guarantee votes for himself, in an fair contest, let alone for Jonathan.
Ebonyi State
From Ebonyi, Emmanuel Uzor reports that there are so many forces and power blocks formed by politicians in the state, with a view to delivering their preferred candidate at the PDP presidential primaries. Some of the blocks are drawn along the line of Jonathan and Atiku. However, President Jonathan tops the list of the preferred candidates, as both the governor and the executives of the PDP are on ground for him. Atiku is not the best candidate for the people of the state.
Right from the beginning, Governor Elechi has remained resolute in his support for President Jonathan, even when the storm was turbulent over his becoming the acting president, which, indeed, earned him the South-East coordinator for Jonathan. Apart from Governor Elechi, the executives of the PDP in the state, who have been adjudged a rubber stamp under the leadership of Engr. Dave Umahi, are also in the fore-front of the campaign to see Jonathan through in the party’s primaries.
Also, Governor Elechi and his men appear battle ready to whip the opposition into submission by making sure that those who have been crying foul over alleged high-handedness of the government and the party chairman do not find their ways back to the party.
Besides, the National Assembly members from the state, including Senator Anthony Agbo of Ebonyi North, Senator Anyim Ude of the South senatorial zone and Mrs. Elizabeth Ogbaga, member representing Ebonyi/Ohaukwu Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives are throwing their weight behind Jonathan.
For Mrs. Ogbaga, the emergence of Jonathan is already a concluded issue, as she is one of the people rallying for support for the president. However, those who are aggrieved about this political arrangement in the state are rooting for Atiku.
In recent advertorials, some groups in the country, including the former governor of Ebonyi State, Dr. Sam Egwu, had backed down support for President Jonathan in the 2011 presidential election. It is, therefore, evident that Dr. Egwu and his group within the party may have thrown their weight behind Atiku, whose support base in Ebonyi is insignificant.
Imo State
In spite of the lingering crisis rocking the leadership of PDP in Imo State, which polarised the party into various camps, our correspondent, Val Okara, reports that unfolding events indicate that party delegates from the state in the upcoming presidential primaries would queue behind President Jonathan. The suspected backing gained impetus following the recent public declaration by Governor Ikedi Ohakim, shortly after he visited President Jonathan at Aso Rock in Abuja to support him.
Before now, rumour was rife in Imo that Ohakim was considering joining another party because of the long-standing disagreement between his New Face of Imo group and the Alliance Group of his archrival, Senator Ifeanyi Araraume and former Governor Achike Udenwa. But with Ohakim conducting the local government elections in Imo recently, where his group clinched all the council seats, the Alliance Group was been pushed out of reckoning, leading to the defection of its arrowheads – Araraume and Udenwa – to Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). Another support also came the way of President Jonathan, with the recent motion by the state House of Assembly that unanimously enjoined the national leadership of the PDP to adopt Jonathan as the consensus candidate of the party in the 2011 presidential election.
For Atiku, the Imo PDP delegates see him as one politician who has been inconsistent, having deserted the party a few years ago to pursue his presidential ambition, only to make a dramatic return. Therefore, it would be a surprise if he enjoys the support of any of the delegates from the state.
NORTH- EAST ZONE
For the PDP, the North East is the home of zoning and rotation. Leader of the Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF), Mallam Adamu Ciroma, is from Yobe State, while former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is from Adamawa State. The other northern aspirants in PDP, who embraced the consensus arrangement, have strong supporters in the North East. However, the emergence of Atiku as northern consensus aspirant has changed the calculation in the zone. Some PDP leaders, who hitherto supported such aspirants as Babangida and Gusau, have switched camp to Jonathan and Atiku.
Adamawa
Aitku is from this state. His defection from the PDP to the Action Congress (AC), on whose ticket he contested the 2007 presidential election, was a big setback for him. In his absence, Governor Murtala Nyako and Professor Jibril Aminu were on top of the political landscape of the PDP. The duo are said to be on the same political wave length, with regards to the PDP presidential primaries. Aminu was pro-Babangida until recently. Nyako, was also said to be supporting Babangida until recently when the former military president pulled out of the race. He is believed to have resolved his differences with Atiku, despite the fact that the Jonathan lure is still strong in the state.
The body language of Aminu when he marked his 72nd birthday last month suggests that he has sympathy for Atiku. He publicly called for the rehabilitation of Atiku and wandered if the refusal of the NEC of the party to give him a waiver as it did for others was because he hails from Adamawa.
Alhaji Bamangar Tukur, Abubakar Halilu Girei, Senator Jonathan Zwingina and some governorship aspirants, who felt short-changed when the PDP did not conduct primaries before presenting Nyako as candidate of the party in 2007, are believed to be working together for Jonathan. Indeed, Zwingina is the leading voice for the Jonathan presidential ambition. The group is strongly against the composition of the state executive. As it stands, the fight over the control of the state PDP exco will determine those who will be delegates at the congresses and the convention.
Atiku stands a good chance in the state, as his followers in AC have moved en masse to the PDP. His victory, however, is dependent on the support of Nyako and Aminu, who may work for him because of Babangida. Jonathan would also make an in-road in the state. He may come distant second.
Bauchi
Governor Isa Yuguda is working for Jonathan, as the coordinator of the Goodluck/Sambo Campaign Organisation in the North East zone. Since he dumped the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), he calls the short in the state chapter of PDP. He is married to the daughter of the late President Yar’Adua and was one of those considered to be Jonathan’s deputy when his father-in-law died.
Jonathan has strong support in the state, as Yuguda and minister for Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Bada Mohammed, are working for him. Although it is believed that some politicians in the state are pro-zoning and power shift, Yuguda’s control of the party machinery may swing the votes for Jonathan. However, the president will not get all the votes in the state, because the resentment against Yuguda, coming from the camp of his former deputy and that of the former governor of the state, may work in Atiku’s favour and give him some votes out of the 110 delegates.
Yobe
This has been a stronghold of the ANPP since 1999. The leading PDP leaders in the state are Yakubu Bello and Senator Usman Albashir, who defected following disagreement with the state ANPP leadership. There is also the Minister for Police Affairs, Alhaji Adamu Maina and Alhaji Hassan Saleh. Some leaders, such as Alhaji Abba Gana Tata, rooted for Babangida. It is not clear if they would now support Atiku since Babangida and the former vice president are working together. Most of the party leaders are, however, said to have sympathy for Jonathan. The campaign for Jonathan in the state is being spareheaded by Saleh. Yobe is expected to have 55 delegates.
Mallam Adamu Ciroma, who had sympathy for Babangida is from the state. PDP members in the state respect him. Since the consensus arrangement is his idea, he has swung support for Atiku and would want to ensure that he delivers the state. However, it was gathered that the Jonathan camp is working hard to ensure that Atiku is defeated in Yobe, to prove that Ciroma has no strong political clout. The president has Maina Waziri and Usman Albashir campaigning for him in the state, in addition to Ciroma. The outcome of the election in Yobe is too close to call. There is likely to be a split of votes.
Taraba
This is a state, where the two factions in PDP are jostling for recognition before the national leadership of the party. Former Governor Jolly Nyame is said to have single-handed made Dambaba Suntai his successor. He is the godfather of Taraba State PDP. However, the relationship between the two has since gone sour, leading to the emergence of two factions in the state. The two factions are, however, believed to be working for Jonathan, separately.
Gombe
Governor Mohammed Danjuma Goje is in control of the party machine since he defeated Abubakar Hashidu at the 2003 governorship election. Sources close to the party said the governor is in control of the delegates from the state. He once nursed presidential ambition and popular among northern leaders who were pro-zoning. If he stands by his position that the North should get the PDP ticket, Atiku would be the man to beat in the state.
Borno
This is another state, where the ANPP has been in complete control of government since 1999. It is believed that Kashim Imam is the sole financial of the PDP in the state and he decides which direction the party should go. It is estimated that Borno would have about 65 delegates at the national convention. Imam is pro-Babangida and if the former military president convinces him, he may support Atiku. He would, however, have to contend with the Special Adviser to Jonathan, Abba Aji, and Ahmed Gulah, who are working hard for Jonathan in the state. There will be a split in the state, with Jonathan having an edge.
NORTH-WEST ZONE
The North-West zone is politically conservative and it is a zone that is mostly ready to preserve the northern establishment. The insistence on zoning, which would guarantee that the presidency goes to the North this year, is loudest in this zone. In this regard, the zone is going to be a Gordian knot to crack for Jonathan. The choice of the zone may be decided by Babangida and General Gusau.
Most of the northern governors that gave their tacit support for the North to retain the presidency, when PDP Northern Governor’s Forum met last July, are from the North West. In this zone, are such powerful individuals as Gusau, M.T Liman, AVM Hamza Senator Garba lla Gieda, Alhaji Yahaya Abdulkarim and Alhaji Umar Alhaji. They have all affirmed the North to complete the two terms that will terminate in 2015.
Zamfara State
Across the country, the PDP governors, to a large extent, are the determinant factors in their respective state, on who emerges. In Zamfara, the governors, Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi, holds the aces. Married to Babangida, he supported the former military president’s aspiration until the northern candidate emerged, with Babangida losing out. He was the deputy to former Governor Sanni Yerima. Indeed, he is the only deputy governor, who succeeded his boss as governor in 2007 general election. However, he fell apart with Yerima, leading to his decamping to PDP in January last year. It was then believed that his dumping ANPP for PDP was to bolster Babangida’s presidential ambition.
On July 3, Shinkafi made his position known on the 2011 presidency when, in Abeokuta, he announced his support for the presidential ambition of the former military president. He made the declaration when he was conferred with the chieftaincy title of Aare Rotola and his wife, Aishat Babangida –Shinkafi as Yeye Aare Rotola of Owu kingdom by Olowu of Owu, Adegboyega, Dosunmi. He is one of the governors who insisted that power should be in the North till 2015.
Though he is said to be friendly with Jonathan, he doubtful if he could sacrifice his pro-North-for-presidency stand for friendship. Besides, Gusau is also from the state and is working hard to ensure that the consensus arrangement, which he subjected himself to, does not become a fluke. It is believed that the odds favour Atiku, although Jonathan will still get some votes.
Kaduna State
Governor Patrick Ibrahim Yakowa is on the driver’s seat. But analysts view current happenings in the state as a clear indication that he is not in charge of the PDP structures in the state. Owing to the fact that Yakowa is running, he has no choice but to deliver Jonathan, ahead of any other presidential hopeful. However, he cannot do it alone. A combination of forces from the Senator Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi’s camp and that of Vice President Sambo will certainly make the task easier for him. Makarfi is not likely to support Atiku.
However, there are some critical stakeholders in Kaduna State who are bent on ensuring that the party produces a northerner as its presidential candidate. One of such stakeholders is Professor Ango Abdullahi, former presidential adviser to former President Olusegun Obasanjo, on food security. He referred to himself recently as one of the fathers and not founders of the PDP. Incidentally, a member of his immediate family is the political adviser to Yakowa. Ango’s stand point, Saturday Sun learnt, may create some little problems for Jonathan’s handlers in the state.
Interestingly, Jonathan’s campaign Director-General, Senator Dalhatu Tafida, who is Nigeria’s ambassador to United Kingdom, is also from the state. But he has no electoral value. He was one of those who bungled Obasanjo’s third term agenda in the Senate.
Kano State
PDP lost the state to the rival ANPP since 2003. Former Kano State governor, Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso, parades himself as the leader of the party in the state, against the PDP’s established tradition that where there is no governor, the highest political office holder in the state assumes leadership of the party. The party is greatly factionalised, as such the former Defence Minister, even though has demonstrated willingness openly to work for Jonathan, lacks the capacity to deliver him. Babangida, who is working with Atiku, has a lot of foot soldiers within the PDP in the state. And wherever Jigawa governor, Sule Lamido pitches his tent, it will have effect on the outcome from Kano, because he enjoys some reasonable following in the state.
Saturday Sun recalls that Kwankwaso and his group recently raised the alarm over Lamido’s growing influence in Kano PDP. And to spite Lamido too, Kwankwaso and his group, travelled to Jigawa State to meet with Saminu Turaki, former Jigawa State governor, to ‘strategise,’ in the hope of assisting him to unseat Lamido in Jigawa State in 2011. Kano is, therefore, a straight fight between Atiku/Babangida and Jonathan, which is a 50-50 chance.
Katsina State
Ibrahim Shema is the governor. He has demonstrated that he is in charge of affairs in the state, especially after the demise of his political mentor, the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. For now, he is Jonathan’s coordinator for the North-West zone. Therefore, he must employ every known political tactics under the sun to deliver his state to Jonathan. But then he has a lot of forces to contend with within the PDP. And these forces, Saturday Sun’s findings reveal, will make the task of delivering Jonathan, a daunting one for him.
Senator Kanti Bello, the Senate’s Chief Whip, is from Katsina, and he working with Atiku, having worked as deputy director-general of IBB Presidential Campaign Organization. He enjoys the sympathy of majority of the late president’s ‘boys,’ including the former first lady, Turai, as such those sympathies would translate into electoral fortunes for the person he supports. If Babangida were the consensus aspirant of the North, the task would have been hard for Jonathan. He was the one who created Katsina State.
Although the executive secretary of the Petroleum Technology Trust Fund, PTDF, Engineer Mutaqqa Rabe, is expected to assist Shema in delivering Jonathan, he can only do so, if Turai decides to support Jonathan, his open support for Jonathan notwithstanding. He was made PTDF boss by Turai, during the reign of the late Yar’Adua, as president.
Alhaji Lawal Kaita, though an associate of Atiku, cannot deliver Atiku in Katsina. And as things stand today, Babangida would have been a hard nut for Jonathan to crack. With Atiku, the president has an edge. However, if the North’s sentiment gets stronger in Katsina before the primaries, Shema may as well choose between securing his second term in office and delivering Jonathan.
Kebbi State
Alhaji Nasamu Dakingari is the governor of Kebbi State. Several unsuccessful attempts have been made by the former governor, who incidentally, is the immediate past FCT minister, Senator Adamu Aliero, to seize the party’s structure from him. Dakingari is a son in-law to the late Yar’Adua. Incidentally, Saturday Sun investigations reveal that Aliero was instrumental in the consummation of the marriage before things fell apart between them. It is not clear who Aliero is working for, between Babangida and Atiku. But he is certainly not working for Jonathan for now.
Dakingari, on the other hand, is one of the northern governors who are bent on ensuring that a northern presidential candidate emerges on the platform of the PDP. But if the others want them to deliver Jonathan, he would certainly deliver him, even if Aliero works against it, as he has trounced Aliero twice, within the party in recent past when both men tested their might.
Sokoto State
Aliyu Wammako is the governor. He was very popular, prior to the 2007 elections. His popularity contributed greatly to PDP’s victory in Sokoto State during the 2007 polls. But for now, he and the deputy are working at cross-purposes. While the deputy is working openly for Jonathan, he is not. But the deputy certainly does not have the capacity and political sagacity to deliver Jonathan alone. Like Kebbi, the only reason Sokoto will deliver Jonathan is if they have all agreed as group to do so, otherwise, Atiku/IBB will get Sokoto.
Jigawa State
In Jigawa, the battle of who controls the state is between Governor Sule Lamido and his predecessor, Senator Ibrahim Saminu Turaki. Lamido was on the side of zoning, but later saw nothing wrong with Jonathan’s aspiration. Since then, he has never pretended to be for Jonathan. Until the consensus arrangement, he once called on Babangida to forget the presidency. The state looks good for Jonathan.
SOUTH WEST ZONE
Left to the party machinery in the zone, support of the South West PDP delegates has already been signed, sealed and delivered to Jonathan. Courtesy of a concert of forces, including Jonathan’s godfather and former President Olusegun Obasanjo, the state governors in the zone and the zonal leadership of the PDP wants the president to retain power. In a meeting of leaders, elders and other stakeholders across the region, on Saturday, August 28, 2010, in Ibadan, they had endorsed the president for the throne.
Despite this, Jonathan’s choice cannot be said to enjoy unanimous support of the party’s teeming members. Indeed, signs that there are cracks within the party on the issue emerged, when supporters of Babangida and Atiku, a few days after, condemned the Ibadan sitting as a “charade,” saying it did not represent the views of majority of the party supporters in the region.
The assertion became intriguing against the backdrop of a claim by the Babangida camp to enjoy the backing of at least three of the South West governors, which he believes would go to Atiku now.
Oyo
The president’s bid enjoys a rock solid backing of Governor Alao-Akala. The governor was the convener of the Ibadan August 28, 2010 parley, where Jonathan’s choice, as the South West’s candidate, was ratified by an enlarged party caucus of the zone, ahead of the PDP primaries. He has also put the entire PDP structure in the state in the service of Jonathan, having constituted a campaign team for the president. Long before the Jonathan presidential ambition project caught on with others across the country, his campaign billboards, believed to be sponsored by groups close to the governor, had sprung up in public places in Ibadan, the state capital and other towns.
Apparently, Alao-Akala is merely playing his politics right and looking after his political self-interest. Faced with internal opposition in the state PDP, led by his former boss, Rashidi Ladoja, that has been trying to wrest the state party machinery from him, as a way of denying him a second term, the governor knows his only saving grace is absolute loyalty and support for the president, who is the leader of the party. The Ladoja group has been mounting pressure on the PDP national leadership to sack the state executive of the party, which is loyal to the governor, and reconstitute it, as a way of hijacking it from him and sweep him out of power. Conscious of this, Alao-Akala moved and forged a warm romance with President Jonathan and PDP national officers, including the national chairman, Dr. Okweziliesi Nwodo, to stave off the implementation of the Senator Ike Nwachukwu’s reconciliation panel’s report, which recommended the “satanic” idea.
In what seems a reward of his labour and pains in shouldering the Jonathan campaign, Governor Alao-Akala got a respite, with the NWC’s reported decision to back off the plan to dissolve the exco, which the ex-national chairman of the party, Vincent Ogbulafor-led executive was said to be disposed to, before his unceremonious exit. The decision is, of course, of mutual interest, as it will ensure Alao-Akala’s overwhelming supporters’ votes go to Jonathan during the primaries.
Jonathan’s strategists may have reasoned that it would be suicidal to allow the “harmonisation” of the various factions of the party in the state being clamoured for, as this can result in the ascendancy of the Ladoja camp, whose leader is a long known personal friend and political ally of Atiku. The duo had been together since their days in the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) of the aborted Third Republic and were both persecuted under the Obasanjo presidency.
With this setting, Atiku may have to look elsewhere for support at the presidential primaries, despite the fact that some Babangida supporters, like Alhaji Azeem Gbolarumi, former deputy governor during Alao-Akala’s 11-month interregnum, may support him. Also, this is despite the fact that renowned businessmen and Aare Musulumi of Yoruba land, Alhaji Abdul Azeez Arisekola Alao, who is a strong Babangida supporter, may be persuaded to support Atiku. In fact, if Babangida were the consensus aspirant of the North, he stands a better chance in Oyo than Atiku. Jonathan sure has the edge in the state.
Osun
The scenario in the state still remains hazy, especially with the ouster of former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola. It was believed that the former governor supported Babangida. However, twice, the former military president was billed to visit the state, but the arrangement was aborted at the 11th hour. Also at the eight fidau prayer for the late Osogbo monarch, Oba Iyiola Oyewale Matanmi 111, the Minna-born general, was rumoured to be on his way to attend the ceremony, before the ex-governor publicly announced that he could no longer make the trip.
With Babangida out of the race and Oyinlola no longer governor, despite controlling the PDP machinery in the state, Jonathan has a breather. This is even moreso as a pro-Jonathan campaign movement is pushing hard in the state. Indeed, the group’s South-West coordinators, led by a national member of the steering committee, Chief Shuaibu Oyedokun, assembled in the state capital, Osogbo, for its maiden meeting. Although, much is yet to be seen in terms of the activities of the state chapter of the group, it was gathered that the youth wing of Jonathan camp, Youth Ask for Goodluck (YAG), allegedly being anchored by an aide of the former governor, Mr. Sola Akande, has been making deft moves to get youths on the campaign train of Mr. President. In fact, some former political allies of Atiku, who defected with him to then AC, during the turbulent period of third term agenda in 2007, with Alhaji Shuaibu Oyedokun as the anchor head, are now the ones championing Jonathan’s cause.
Although, Atiku is an in-law to the Ijesas and a honorary chief in the state, the only presence his machinery could be said to have made was ensuring his recent visit to grace the public presentation of a seven-volume book, written by a former governorship aspirant of the state, Chief Dosu Ladipo. Even so, nobody came out on that day to identify with his aspiration.
Ondo
Indications are that the Ondo State PDP has pitched its tent with President Jonathan in the presidential party primaries. Already the Minister of Defence, Adetokunbo Kayode, who was the coordinator of Yar-Adua/Jonathan 2007 campaign, has taken over the control of the party since the removal of Olusegun Agagu as governor of the state by the election petition tribunal in February 2009. He was in the state capital, Akure recently for three days and held series of meetings with party leaders, at which they sealed their deal to go for Jonathan. Also Agagu, who is also Obasanjo’s ally, is on the Jonathan train.
Otunba Oyewole Fasawe, a close associate of Atiku, is giving his all in support of the former vice president. However, he looks like a lone ranger within the party ion the state.
To prove that Jonathan is the man to beat in the state, PDP spokesperson in Ondo, Yemi Adedipe, confirmed the party’s decision to support him. “It was the decision of the party in the South-West to support President Jonathan in the forthcoming primaries and Ondo State PDP is also in support of the decision, so, we are all for Jonathan,” Adedipe said.
Ekiti
It is not far-fetched to state that Jonathan would sweep at least 90 per cent of the votes cast by delegates from Ekiti State. Besides the fact that the state aligns with the Ibadan summit declaration, its deposed governor, Segun Oni, has expressed confidant that all votes would be delivered to president. He had said that the president took him and others into confidence on his ambition. He, therefore, strenuously canvassed support for Jonathan at the Ibadan South West meeting. Although now out of power, their chummy relationship is the binding force. This relationship dated back to when Jonathan led the re-election campaign of Oni, after the appellate court ordered the re-run of the state 2007 governorship poll, before the eventual ouster of Oni last year.
Some of the chieftains of the party, who spoke with Saturday Sun exuded confidence that Jonathan would carry the day at the party’s convention. The state coordinator for Goodluck Support Group (GSG) in Ekiti State, Chief Femi Akinyemi, declared President Jonathan the candidate to beat at the party’s primaries. According to him, the coast is clear, since principal officers of the party assembled in Ibadan, Oyo State, and unanimously adopted President Jonathan as the presidential candidate of the party in the next general election.
He added: “We cannot take a suicidal plunge by picking IBB because, whether we like it or not, Nigerians are yet to get over the shocks and indelible suffering the people underwent under his regime, especially the annulled June 12 presidential election.”
Ogun
Three prominent indigenes of the state will decide who, President Jonathan and Atiku gets the state delegates’ votes. The personalities, all from Ogun East Senatorial Districts, are Governor Daniel, who is coordinating Jonathan’s campaign; Senator Lekan Mustafa, for Atiku and Hon. Gbenga Oduwaiye, for Babangida in the Gateway state. Now Babangida is out of contention. Atiku appears to enjoy a cordial relationship with? PDP supporters in the state, through the legendary Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM), which is still alive and intact even within the PDF. Former presidential aide, Chief Titi Ajanaku, one of the founding members of the PDP in the state and an Atiku ally, is also likely to wield a major influence in determining his emergence. Ajanaku, it is believed, may deploy her governorship campaign structure and machinery, which has presence across the state, to sell Atiku’s bid.
However, Jonathan is the rave of the moment for the Ogun people.
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