With the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) national convention coming on Thursday, Januray 13, all is now set for the delegates to pick between President Goodluck Jonathan and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. With ex-military president, General Ibrahim Babangida, former national security adviser, General Aliyu Gusau and Kwara State Governor, Dr. Bukola Saraki out of the race, owing to the consensus ararngement made by northern presidential aspirants, the calculation as to who may pick PDP ticket has changed. Feelers from across the country show that without Babangida, President Jonathan looks indimidating in the race. The rating of the president and Atiku in the six geopolitical zones proves this.
NORTH CENTRAL ZONE
The essence of domination is now so serious in the zone that it cannot be ignored as a major factor for the determination of who wins where in the zone. There is ethnic domination and there is religious domination. The people of the North Central and North East zones have been protesting their domination by their Hausa/Fulani of the North West. A more serious problem is religious domination, a factor which led to the emergence of minority political leaders who are now fighting for their independence from the majority Hausa/Fulani.
However, the minority question in the politics of North has become a problem. The recent crisis in Jos, Plateau State and the attendant reaction from personalities in the two divide have further enhanced the religious and ethnic domination in the North, to the extent of creating a deep-seated suspicion.
Now, prominent personalities in the North Central zone, with the exception of their Muslim brothers, see the next elections as a pay-back time.
Between Jonathan and Atiku, the former seems to have an upper hand in the zone. With government of Benue State as coordinator of the Jonathan/Namadi Campaign Organisation in the North Central zone, Prof. Jerry Gana in Niger State, Solomon Lar and Governor David Jonah Jang in Plateau State, it is yet to be seen how Atiku will make any headway.
Plateau State
In Plateau State, Marian Agbola-Aleshinloye reports that Jonathan appears to be the only candidate generating most political royalties. Initially, Babangida appeared to have the religious advantage in the Hausa/Fulani dominated area of the Jos North Local Government Area, with former PDP Chairman of Jos North, Danladi Pasali, rooting for him, when he was in the race.
In the state, Jonathan appears popular, owing to his minority status and the way he handled the crisis in the state. Besides, the Governor Jonah Jang faction of the PDP believes that a support for the president would enable its members to remain in power. The minorities in the state see Jonathan’s victory in Plateau as victory for all minorities.
Benue State
In Benue, Rose Ejembi reports that Atiku lost some support on account of his defection from Action Congress (AC). Audu Ogbe, his point’s man, is no longer with him. Ogbe had entrenched AC in the state before Atiku’s defection. Now, with Atiku’s exit from AC, it appears his supporters in the state have deserted him.
On the other hand, Jonathan is strong in this state and has an upper hand, following a declaration by majority of the people that he should take a shot at the presidency. What is more, Governor Gabriel Suswam is the coordinator of Jonathan for president campaign organization in the North Central zone.
Nasarawa State
Here, there appears to be an initial fierce political struggle between Jonathan and Babangida. In the state, religion and preference for a northern candidate are always played up, which had given Babangida an edge. In spite of the strong support pledged for Jonathan when all the political heavy weights in Nasarawa State visited him, the president was struggling when Babangida was in the race. Now, with Babangida out, the president has found a bearing. If Babangida’s supporters embrace Atiku, the former vice president will have an edge; if not, Jonathan will carry the day. What is obvious, however, is that there will be split of votes.
Kogi State
The battle is equally as fierce here. This is understandable because all the political bigwigs in the state, including Governor Ibrahim Idris, senators and legislators have openly expressed their preference for Jonathan. In fact, at a stakeholders meeting, convened to determine who among the presidential gladiators to support, Jonathan was the popular choice of the people. Babangida’s political structure in the state has been handed over to Atku and it is expected that all the former military top shots in Kogi State, including former Chief of Amy Staff, Ibrahim Saliu, Gen. Jemibewon and Ahmed Usman, who had queued behind Babanigda, would now support Atiku.
Several factors, however, are working for Jonathan. The prospects of a promising refinery, the planned revival of Ajaokuta Steel Company and other structures put on ground in Kogi State by Jonathan administration could change the perception of the indigenes. Jonathan may, therefore, win Kogi State with a slight margin.
Kwara State
Governor Bukola Saraki’s earlier entry into the presidential race had less impact in the political equation of the state, as far as the PDP presidential primary is concerned. While he was in the race, he was sure of home advantage. Now that he is out of the race, the equation has changed. As it stands, delegates’ votes would be divided alone ethnic line. The Yoruba areas are likely going with Jonathan, while the Hausa areas would support Atiku.
Niger State
Before now, it could have been said that Niger State would pitch its tent with Babangida, for obvious reasons. The former military president is from the state and a former governor of the state, Abdulkadir Kure, was working with him. Babangida is no longer in the race, which leaves Governor Muazu Babangida Aliyu the free will to decide who to support, despite the fact that Babangida maybe supporting Atiku.
It is believed that the votes in the state will be split between Atiku and Jonathan, with the former having an upper hand, owing to General Babangida’s support.
SOUTH SOUTH ZONE
This zone solely belongs to Jonathan, despite the fact that the number of delegates from the six states maybe less than those from such states as Kano, Sokoto and perhaps, Kebbi combined. However, such overwhelming support for Jonathan was not there from the beginning. Indeed, given the mobilisation efforts of state governors in South South geopolitical zone that culminated in the July meeting of South-South leaders in Port Harcourt, it was beyond doubt that Jonathan would rake in most of the votes from the zone, including Rivers State, where there was an initial doubt.
Rivers State
Henry Chukwurah reports that Governor Chibuike Amaechi had picked the bills for the South South Summit. But that high hope came under serious threat a few months back due to two ugly events that pitted his government against the Presidency. First was the controversy-ridden visit of the First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan, to the state during which she publicly sided her Okirika kinsmen over the governor’s planned demolition of waterfronts. Next and perhaps, even more serious was the August raid on the state by officials of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) that sent some of the targets fleeing their offices. Expectedly, the incident pitted Amaechi against the EFCC and some government officials suspected a case of the biblical voice of Jacob and the hand of Esau in the incident. This is despite the governor’s expressed conviction, through his deputy, Mr. Tele Ikuru, that President Jonathan was likely not aware of the activities of EFCC in the state.
Although the like of former governor of the state, Sir Celestine Omehia at the pro-Jonathan rally held on September 14 in Port Harcourt invoked “Holy Ghost fire” on anyone in the state who is against Jonathan’s presidential ambition, there was no doubt that the damage needed much more than that to fix. However, a rushed fence-mending within the past few weeks restored hopes that a chunk of the Rivers votes, if not all, will go to the president. A tacit confirmation came on the eve of Jonathan’s formal declaration for the presidential race when Governor Amaechi led royal fathers and select elders of the state on a solidarity visit to the Presidency to pledge the people’s votes for the president. They pointedly assured him: “As our son, you need not worry about the support of your people; the whole of the Niger Delta region is behind you.”
Despite the above development, Atiku hopes that he would pick votes in the state. For one, the relationship between Babangida and former governor of the state, Dr. Peter Odili, is causing a scare in the state. Odili still has influence in the Rivers PDP and may back Atiku, in the absence of Babangida. Atiku has a supporter in former AC leader in the state, Prince Tonye Princewill, who is now in the PDP. Also, his media consultant in the state, Chief Eze Chukwuemeka Eze, has been aggressively selling the former vice president to mainly the youth.
Bayelsa State
From Yenagoa, Femi Folaranmi reports that if the 2011 presidential primaries had taken place with the late President Umar Yar’Adua still alive but not a candidate, Jonathan would have lost in Bayelsa. This is because most of the delegates controlled by Governor Timipre Sylva would have voted for whoever he and the late Yar’Adua preferred.
Sylva had struck a bond with the late president when his initiative of Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) in the state was bought by the Federal Government and developed to provide the basis for the proclamation of amnesty for Niger Delta militants.
It is common knowledge that when Jonathan was vice president, he and Sylva did not enjoy the best of relationship. All kinds of plots were hatched to oust Sylva from the Government House, due to his robust relationship with Yar’Adua. This explained why Sylva’s name was mentioned as against the approval of Jonathan as acting president, while ailing Yar’Adua was abroad for treatment. The allegation, which Sylva denied, severed his relationship with Jonathan’s wife and made many Bayelsa indigenes oppose his style of governance to ask Jonathan to move against him once he became president after Yar’Adua’s death.
Indeed, the fear that Sylva may lose the governorship election was real until he kick-started the campaign for Jonathan to contest the presidential election.
In Bayelsa, there are two distinct power blocks, along Sylva and Jonathan/ Diepreye Alamieyeseigha/Timi Alaibe. The latter, particularly those in Jonathan committee of friends and Alaibe camp would prefer that Sylva does not return as governor because of alleged double dealing over whom to support in the PDP primaries. However, Sylva has denied the allegation and have assurance that Bayelsa would vote for Jonathan. Given that the PDP governors dictate the pace in the party and the moves at the Presidency to pacify them and ensure that Jonathan gets the PDP ticket, Governor Sylva’s promise could be taken seriously. Indeed, to prove to the president that he is behind him and to avoid a backlash in his own election if Jonathan fails to win the PDP primaries, many believe that the governor would ensure that Bayelsa delegates vote for the president.
Although Atiku has made some in-road in the state, with some high ranking PDP chieftains, he does not stand much chance. This is the home state of Jonathan and the people are behind him.
Cross River State
From Cross River State, Judex Okoro reports that the race for 2011 presidential election is likely a one-way win for Jonathan because the political class and major power blocks in the state have all collapsed and are working for the governor, Liyel Imoke and, by extension,all the political heavyweights in the state are directly or indirectly involved in the Jonathan/Sambo 2011 project. For instance, the three major groups, namely Goodluck Support Group (GSG), South-South Democratic Voice (SOSODEV) and Jonathan Consolidation 2011, have spread their tentacles to all nooks and crannies of the state drumming up support for a Jonathan presidency. Coordinated by Eko Atu, Lord Silver and Hon. Bassey Ibor respectively, the groups have been mobilising seriously for the President.
Speaking to Saturday Sun on their efforts to ensure Jonathan’s victory, the state coordinator of the Goodluck Support Group, a group regarded as Governor Imoke’s pet project, gave an assurance that Jonathan would clinch all votes at the primaries. “Within the next few days, President Jonathan’s team will know that Cross River is totally for him and his team. That is authentic. Now that the time-table is out, we will go to work, because we are not leaving anything to chance,” he said.
To show total support for Jonathan, the Cross River Elders Forum, in an enlarged meeting on September 16, 2010, unanimously endorsed Jonathan/Sambo ticket for 2011 and passed a vote of confidence in the administration.
For Atiku, the state might not be a fertile ground, as his impacts are not felt at all. One Ntufam Innocent Ntui, a PDP stalwart from the Central Senatorial Zone, told Saturday Sun that it has been a Herculean task selling the former vice president in the state because virtually everybody is rooting for Jonathan.
Akwa Ibom State
The story is not different in Akwa Ibom State, as our correspondent, Joe Effiong, describes Jonathan as the beautiful bride of all the politically minded people of the state. Even those who disagree with Governor Godswill Akpabio, such as his predecessor, Obong Victor Attah and Senator John Akpanudoedehe, are looking up to Jonathan to help their political cause.
A recent campaign attended by Vice President Namadi Sambo brought all the groups, including market women campaigning for the president. Everyday, political groups are collapsing into Akwa Ibom Peoples Forum (AKPF) led by the Deputy State Chairman of the party, Bishop Sam Akpan, in support of the president. Also, all the National Assembly members in the state, who are automatic delegates, are for Jonathan. At least, so they say openly. The Chairman, House Committee on Rules, Business and Ethics, Otuekong Ita Enang, also brought a group to the state to drum up support for the President.
Thus, from all indications, Jonathan might pick 100 per cent of Akwa Ibom votes at the primaries, unless something unimaginable happens before then.
Edo State
Also, the voting pattern of Edo State delegates to the PDP primaries, according to Tony Osauzo, is not likely to favour Atiku. Although Babangida’s former deputy, Admiral Augustus Aikhomu; former Deputy Senate President, Albert Legogie and director-general of his campaign organisation, Dr. Raymond Dokpesi, are from the state, they are not known to wield much influence and, therefore, may not help Atiku’s cause. For Jonathan, the forces and power block backing him in the state are formidable. Barring any last minute political horse-trading, the president has the backing of Chief Tony Anenih, Dr. Sam Ogbemudia and Vice Admiral Mike Akhigbe. His victory in the presidential primaries from the Edo flank would be made easier by the fact that, like other states in the South-South region, the sentiment is high that the region be allowed to produce the President in 2011.
Delta State
In Delta State, checks by Buchy Enyinnaya revealed that Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan is an unrepentant apostle of Jonathan’s 2011 ambition. Thus, it is within convenient prediction that the chunk of votes by the state’s delegates to the forthcoming PDP primaries will go to the president.
Jonathan’s luck could be said to have come about because former governor of the state, Chief James Ibori is on exile. Ibori is influential and could have swayed votes against Jonathan, who is believed to have been hunting him. With Ibori in Dubai, his influence will not be much on the delegates. If any would go against the president, it would be minority vote.
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