Trump Will Lose To Joe Biden - Says Professor Who Has Accurately Predicted Elections Since 1984

In an interview with CNN, Lichtman was definitive in his answer: "The keys predict that Donald Trump will lose the White House this year."

Lichtman bases his prediction on a model of "13 keys" that can be answered as either true or false for any given election.

The "13 keys" in his system include factors such as the economy, incumbency, social unrest and scandals, as well as the candidates' personal charisma.

"The secret is keeping your eye on the big picture of incumbent strength and performance. And don't pay any attention to the polls, the pundits, the day-to-day ups and downs of the campaign. And that's what the keys gauge. The big picture," Lichtman explained.

After 2016, Americans have been (understandingly) wary of presidential prediction models. But "dismissing Lichtman's findings would seem like sticking your head in the proverbial sand," CNN's Editor at Large Chris Cillizza said in his political audio briefing this week.

When asked if the key model could account for something as cataclysmic as the Covid-19 pandemic, Lichtman remained confident. "Look, retrospectively and prospectively, the keys go all the way back to 1860. They are what we call a robust system. So, I don't fiddle with them. They've lasted through enormous changes in our politics, in our economy, in our democracy. Don't fiddle with the keys," he explained.

Although Lichtman has been predicting elections since 1982, he explained that he still feels the same amount of pressure every four years. "I'm 73 years old," he said to CNN. "But every time, without fail, I get butterflies."

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ml-ChX_qMu0" target="_blank" class="aeva_link bbc_link new_win" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ml-ChX_qMu0</a>

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Posted: at 12-08-2020 08:37 AM (3 years ago) | Hero

I think professor will be wrong this time!

Posted: at 12-08-2020 10:22 AM (3 years ago) | Gistmaniac

You are very wrong this time

Posted: at 12-08-2020 11:17 AM (3 years ago) | Gistmaniac

Judging by all of the reactions above, I can now see how lack of constant electricity in Nigeria disenfranchises so many from the true picture of things on the ground in the US.

Posted: at 12-08-2020 02:37 PM (3 years ago) | Upcoming

Professor Lichtman WILL be wrong this time as Trump WILL sadly win. And he WILL win and by a bigger margin than he got in 2016.

Posted: at 12-08-2020 07:43 PM (3 years ago) | Gistmaniac