Nigeria's Babangida threatens to quit ruling party Tue Dec 7, 2010 6:59pm GMT * Babangida says Jonathan bid breaches zoning pact * Divisions risk splitting ruling party * Election set to be fiercely contested By Nick Tattersall
LAGOS, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Former Nigerian military ruler Ibrahim Babangida threatened on Tuesday to quit the ruling party before elections next April, underlining deep divisions over the candidacy of incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan.
Jonathan's bid for the presidency of Africa's most populous nation is controversial because he is a southerner and inherited office earlier this year when late President Umaru Yar'Adua, a northerner, died part way through his first term.
The constitution of the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) refers to a "policy of rotation and zoning" which has in practice meant that the presidency has switched between the mostly-Muslim north and largely-Christian south every two terms.
The PDP's candidate has won every election in Nigeria since the end of military rule just over a decade ago, but disagreement over who should run on its ticket in 2011 risks splitting the party and leaving the presidential race wide open.
Babangida said in a letter to PDP chairman Okwesilieze Nwodo that Jonathan's candidacy was a clear breach of the zoning deal. "If the party has become so helpless in the face of these gross violations of its own constitution, then many of us shall have no alternative but to reconsider our continued membership of the party," Babangida said.
History has always favoured the incumbent in Nigeria's patronage-based political system, but Jonathan faces a tough battle at the PDP primaries, due by mid-January.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has been picked by an elite group of northern politicians as a "consensus northern candidate" to challenge him for the nomination. [ID:nLDE6B00Y0]
Abubakar was chosen over four other northern aspirants for the ruling party ticket, including Babangida, former national security adviser Aliyu Gusau and Kwara state governor Bukola Saraki. [ID:nLDE6AL1JI]
Babangida and Gusau quickly congratulated Abubakar on his selection as the main PDP challenger to Jonathan, but analysts have questioned whether the "northern consensus" would hold.
"Babangida's comments are a warning shot -- a break-up of the PDP is a real possibility if Jonathan wins the primaries or even decides to continue to contest," said one Nigerian political analyst, who asked not to be named.
"It also suggests he has little faith in Atiku."
The April polls are shaping up to Nigeria's most unpredictable in recent memory because of the uncertainty in the ruling party. Ask three Nigerians how they will end and the response is at least three equally well-argued scenarios.
Key will be the state governors, who form a powerful caucus in the PDP. They could back Jonathan, Abubakar or a third candidate to try to resolve the divisions. Or northern factions in the PDP could split and mount a challenge at the polls.
Whatever the outcome, the final victor could find himself saddled with legal disputes and emerge with a weak mandate, hampering his administration's ability to push through badly needed reforms in sub-Saharan Africa's second-biggest economy. (For more Reuters Africa coverage and to have your say on the top issues, visit: af.reuters.com/ ) (Editing by Angus MacSwan)
It's Maradona at his best (?worst). After losing out on the Northern consensus candidate plan, our own dear Maradona has to find a way to back out of the arrangement he solemnly agreed to with his Northern colleagues. "The court has spoken, and we must comply", cooed Maradona. But what did the court say? That the zoning arrangement is unenforceable!
The drama has begun; PDP should call IBB's bluff and let him go and pick up ANPP's nomination as he has always planned. It's been long speculated that IBB will back out if he is not the chosen one, and the expected is happening. Enough of all this window dressing; we expect him to declare for another party in the next few days.
Posted: at 8-12-2010 03:16 AM (13 years ago) | Newbie
that should not be a much suprises to any one who follows and understands nigerian politics well , but the facts remain unchanged anyway , Babangida, ATIKU OR jonathan, non of them will actually be elected as president come 2011, and that is so certain , PDP will not form a central govt after this very regime , supose Babangida is allowed to contest the primary he would have floored jonthan and thats no doubt , and that would have been more honoured to him than loosing the primary election to ATIKU ABUBAKAR, however i for see IBB pulling out of the PDP maybe before the primary , since election in nigeria is mostly based on what i don,t get i destroy, he might formed another party or team up with the existing one , but the chances is more brighter for him contesting in the PDP than forming or joining another party , and he might end up controlling one state or two
Posted: at 8-12-2010 06:47 AM (13 years ago) | Grande Master
that should not be a much suprises to any one who follows and understands nigerian politics well , but the facts remain unchanged anyway , Babangida, ATIKU OR jonathan, non of them will actually be elected as president come 2011, and that is so certain , PDP will not form a central govt after this very regime , supose Babangida is allowed to contest the primary he would have floored jonthan and thats no doubt , and that would have been more honoured to him than loosing the primary election to ATIKU ABUBAKAR, however i for see IBB pulling out of the PDP maybe before the primary , since election in nigeria is mostly based on what i don,t get i destroy, he might formed another party or team up with the existing one , but the chances is more brighter for him contesting in the PDP than forming or joining another party , and he might end up controlling one state or two
Posted: at 8-12-2010 06:48 AM (13 years ago) | Grande Master
divineproject at 8-12-2010 02:26 PM (13 years ago) (f)
ZONING is a PDP thing and not contained in our constitution, therefore GEJ can contest if he likes..........in short IBB should not just quit PDP, he should quit politics entirely..............but I dont see him doing that, becos he needs to cover his tracks till he says BYE to mother earth............
A LITTLE HELP HERE; A LITTLE HELP THERE, MAKES THE WORLD GO ROUND!
Posted: at 8-12-2010 02:26 PM (13 years ago) | Hero
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