I foresaw the comprehensive defeat of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar at the PDP presidential primary. You don’t need to possess any special talent to know that there are certain dynamics that define our politics. The problem with many of us is that we have mindsets that are defined more by perceptions than reality. For instance, we perceive that a Southerner would always want a Southerner to be president, even when the facts of history do not support such a presumption. It is even worse for foreigners who habitually define Nigeria as “Muslim North” and “Christian South” and analyse every issue from that prism. Nigeria is certainly more complex than that!
There are dynamics and undercurrents that define us as a people which can hardly be taught in a classroom. One of such, I admit, is ethno-religious sentiment. But, in this same country, I have seen voters rubbish such without blinking. A ready example was in 1999 when Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo, as the presidential candidate of the PDP, did not win a single state in his own geo-political zone, among his own kith and kin. He didn’t win his ward or his local government, much less his state. In the June 12, 1993 election, Bashorun MKO Abiola defeated Bashir Tofa in his backyard in Kano. In the cancelled presidential primary of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in 1992, Chief Olu Falae defeated Maj. Gen. Shehu Musa Yar’Adua in Kaduna State. Yar’Adua himself defeated Alhaji Lateef Jakande in Lagos. I will never deny the factor of ethnic sentiment in our politics, but it does not define us 100 per cent.
Unfortunately for Atiku, that was what he played up in his quest for the presidential ticket of the PDP. I know Atiku a bit: he is not a bigoted person. He is not a sectionalist. He is one of the most broad-minded politicians Nigeria has ever had. In fact, you can accuse him of being too liberal. I can say this without hesitation. Yet, because he desperately wanted to be president, he adopted the ethnic strategy. This was very unusual of Atiku—but he chose to play the game that way because he saw this as the last opportunity for him to be president. It never worked out. Why? I suggest these 10 reasons, to start with.
Incumbency Factor: I did say last week that I had never seen an incumbent president lose his party’s nomination for re-election. A sitting president has an unusual advantage. He has access to unlimited resources, both financial and material, at no personal cost. He can influence the rules, regulations and laws to his own advantage. He is the ultimate dispenser of favour. He controls the state machinery. And, maybe culturally, we tend to give allegiance to the man on the throne. There is always this fear of not wanting to work against the man in power because if he wins again, you are bound for the wilderness in a country where most politicians and business people look up to government for survival. Atiku was up against this giant factor.
Governors’ Power: Closely related to the incumbency factor is the power of governors in Nigeria. They are the most powerful bloc, I have said time and again. It is not a surprise that some states turned 100 per cent of their delegates to President Goodluck Jonathan. They decided who would be delegates in the first place! The moment they met with the president last month and issued a communiqué backing Jonathan for the party’s ticket, I knew the game was over for Atiku, although he did say a governor had only one vote and that the delegates would still have a mind of their own. He was dead wrong.
Northern Governors: Were you amazed that Northern governors overwhelmingly supported Jonathan? Well, this is my guess: if Atiku gets the ticket and becomes president, he could be in power till 2019! (Forget Atiku’s one-term-only promise—only President Nelson Mandela ever turned down the opportunity to go for a second term. The lure of power is too strong to resist). With Atiku out of the way now, every Northern governor is a potential president when power returns to the North, hopefully in 2015. Supporting Atiku now would have sealed their fate forever.
“One North”: Atiku was quoted to have said he could become PDP candidate without Southern votes because the North had 60 per cent of the delegates which would be enough to win the ticket (51 per cent is the minimum requirement). This concept of “one North”—that Northern states would all go in the same direction—is one of the biggest myths of Nigerian politics. Just as there is nothing like “one South”, there is also nothing like “one North”. I have done extensive work on this in the past. At no time in the history of this country has any of the two regions delivered 100 per cent of the votes to a “son of the soil”. In the two regions, there are internal issues and factors that define the voting pattern. That is why it is very difficult to define us along religion and ethnicity sometimes. A Muslim Northerner can decide to support a Christian Southerner and vice-versa. It has happened a million times before and it will continue to be so.
Adamu Ciroma: How on earth could Atiku choose Ciroma as the arrowhead of his ambition? He raised Ciroma from the dead and commissioned him to preach the gospel of zoning to the ends of the earth. I don’t know the thinking behind this. Ciroma has never delivered politically before. When he was in the National Republican Convention (NRC), it was SDP that always won election in his state, Yobe. As a member of PDP, he has never delivered the state to his party. ANPP always calls the shot there, up till today. Any surprise that Jonathan defeated Atiku even in Yobe State?
Consensus Crisis: Since Atiku emerged the consensus candidate of the Adamu Ciroma group, there had been disquiet among the people he defeated—Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, Gen. Aliyu Mohammed Gusau and Dr. Bukola Saraki. Even though they openly claimed to be committed to the arrangement, they were seething with rage that Atiku had played a fast one on them. The arrangement was Atiku’s idea and the others believed he adopted unfair means and tactics to edge them out. In fact, they believed he outsmarted them. They kicked themselves for falling for the trick. So they really did not work for him wholeheartedly despite the public posturing.
Niger Delta: There was the Niger Delta sentiment which was played up and which might have played a role, no matter how little. One, the people of the region have never produced a president despite owning the oil and gas resources that feed the nation. Two, the restiveness and militancy may worsen if a Niger Delta son is edged out. Three, the people of the South-south have always supported the core North politically and this was a chance to keep faith with them. Four, an Atiku presidency would effectively send the South-south packing from Aso Rock as the VP would come from the South-east. You cannot discount the Niger Delta factor.
“Violent Change”: The public statement by Atiku about “violent change” did not win him many admirers, especially as bombs started going off here and there. There is no evidence to link him to the blasts and riots, but he definitely “misjived”. It was an overkill that got many people angry.
Excessive Politicking: The perception of many neutrals was that Atiku was too desperate to be president and this did not help his cause. The “violent change” mentioned above was one evidence. But beyond that, the orchestration of court cases, the stage-managing of many “opinion polls” that gave him the ticket and the persistent attacks on the person of the president, even at the convention venue, were seen by many as desperate measures. Even when the bombs were going off, he refused to play the statesman. Instead, he politicised his response, lampooning Jonathan and advertising his credentials. Not a few asked: is there more to this ambition?
Divine Destiny: Despite all the reasons I have suggested, if God had said Atiku would be president, he would still have won (he can still win on another platform in any case). No human being would have been able to stop him. But “the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong,” as the Preacher said. “It is not of him that willeth nor of him that runneth but of God that sheweth mercy,” according to Apostle Paul. All his life, Chief Obafemi Awolowo wanted to be president. He never got there. Obasanjo and Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua did not as much as dream of it, yet God put them there. Atiku has been wanting to be president in the last 18 years. He was so, so close to getting it under Obasanjo, yet it eluded him. Is God telling him something?
AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…
Ribadu vs Buhari
The emergence of Mallam Nuhu Ribadu as the presidential candidate of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) was not unexpected, but in the light of the emergence of President Goodluck Jonathan as the PDP flag bearer, the opposition is now in a quandary over an alliance. ACN is billed to go into an alliance with the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). That is not the issue. The issue is that Gen. Muhammadu Buhari is CPC’s candidate. To forge a common front against the PDP, either Ribadu or Buhari will have to step down for the alliance to work. Buhari was being wooed to fly ACN’s flag up till the last minute. Ribadu would not have emerged. But Buhari prefers an alliance in which both parties will field a joint candidate, preferably the retired general. Who will step down now? Ribadu or Buhari? Deadlock!
Opposition’s Position
The best way to allow an easy ride for President Goodluck Jonathan in the April 9 poll is for the opposition to remain divided. Even with a united front, it is still going to be a hectic task. But imagine the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), CPC and ACN all fielding different candidates? Going by current realities, CPC would probably win some states in the North without any in the South. ACN could do same in the South-west plus Edo without any presence elsewhere. ANPP would probably pick two or three states. APGA and Labour Party—the other parties that control states—are not fielding any presidential candidate, with APGA indicating that it would back Jonathan. In other words, it is not looking good for the opposition. But April is still a long time. In politics, they say, 24 hours is a long time.
| Posted: at | |
TRENDING GISTS 
EFCC Boss, Olukoyede Faces Visa Ban Threat Over Yahaya Bello's Case
Moses Bliss Reacts After A Troll Bashes Him For Allowing His Wife Preach Whenever They Go For Events
Manchester United v Arsenal: English Premier League Match,Team News,Goal Scorers and Stats
Your First Salary Belong To Your Father For His Blessings Not to Your Pastor - Kanayo O. Kanayo
JUST IN! Gov. Fubara Relocates Rivers Assembly Sitting To Government House
9yr Old Boy Stabs His 10yr Old Classmate to Death on Their Home From School