economic reality. Main Street's in protracted
Depression. Nearly 25 million Americans are
jobless.
Real unemployment approaches 23%. On
November 6, Americans voted. Neither candidate proposed ways to create jobs.
Obama's done more to destroy them than
create them. More on that below.
Hours worked and income gains were
missing in Friday's report. Average weekly hours for production and nonsupervisory
workers declined 0.3%. Weekly
manufacturing hours dropped by the same
amount. So did average weekly earnings.
Aggregate weekly hours represents total labor input. It edged up a meager 0.1% for
private sectors workers. At the same time, it fell that amount for production and
nonsupervisory ones. Doing so shows
weakness, not strength.
Unemployment duration rose to 40.2 weeks.
It represents a 10-month high. Moreover, recently laid off workers are hard-pressed to
find jobs. Hardest hit are African Americans,
Latinos and 20 - 24 year olds.
Sandy's impact is also adverse. Expect income and spending to suffer. So will job creation.
Most affected homeowners have no flood insurance. During hard times, their ability to rebuild and recoup is hampered.
One economist assessed conditions this way.
Don't mistake headline jobs figures for economic health. Productivity, top and
bottom line erosion signify decline, not
growth.
Economist Jack Rasmus analyzes monthly jobs figures. He questions BLS data accuracy.
He told Progressive Radio News Hour
listeners that something is very wrong with the numbers.
Each fall and winter, well above trend job
gains are reported. In contrast, every spring/ early summer gains "collapse. There is indeed something going on with the jobs numbers,
though it's not falsification," says Rasmus.
At the same time, employers are replacing full-time workers with part-time/temp ones.
They're paid less with lower benefits. In
addition, fictitious new business formations exaggerate job creation.
Something indeed is wrong with BLS reports.
With elections days away, Friday's was very suspect. Later downward revisions may erase November 2 gains.
Moreover, Rasmus and other independent
economists expect protracted hard times. Layoff notices are increasing.
Throughout
2012, business investment declined
precipitously.
Q III equipment and software numbers
collapsed to zero. Business spending on
buildings declined 4.4%. These figures
represent rapid deceleration. Nothing ahead looks promising. So-called evidence that
housing is recovering is illusory.
Expect consumers to run out of steam.
Around 90% of households are maxing out on credit cards and drawing down savings.
Watch for that to end ahead. What can't go
on forever won't.
Moreover, global growth is contracting
rapidly. Spillover will impact America. In 2013, expect reality to arrive with a bang. In Q III, US exports declined for the first time in three years.
Global trade overall is contracting. So is US
manufacturing. In mid-October, the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB) maintains "Red Alert" conditions.
"Economic shock" could arrive any time, it says.
Global conditions are rapidly
deteriorating. Western economies, the Middle East, North Africa, East and Central Asia are affected.
GEAB said, "Remember Lehman Brothers….in a few hours the world moved from 'normal' to 'Red Alert' mode!" Some analysts expect
Lehman on steroids ahead. The fullness of
time will tell.
Counterproductive Euroland/US policies may hasten its arrival.
Economies don't prosper by prioritizing militarism over domestic needs, destroying their middle class, denying young workers future opportunities, letting unemployment
rise, and substituting low pay/poor benefit/ part-time or temp jobs for higher paying/ good benefit full-time ones.
Bad policies beget bad results. Substituting
short-term gains for what's vital longer-term assures economies in decline. Prosperity
depends on job creation, income growth, and governments serving everyone equitably.
America and Europe are being third-
worldized. It may arrive sooner than most expect. Expect conditions ahead to be worse than 2008. China's heading for a hard landing.
Europe's in recession. Insolvent banks may
collapse. Sovereign crisis conditions make things worse. A potential Euroland breakup
may follow.
Money creation madness solves nothing. At most, it creates the illusion of all's well. Reality always has the last word.
Summing up conditions overall, one analyst
said half the world's in recession, Europe's in big trouble, and major central banks are running out of bullets. Potentially, a perfect storm awaits.
Greece and Spain are canaries in the coal
mine. They're doing everything wrong and heading for collapse. It's just a matter of
time.
What happens to them affects the continent.
As Europe goes, America follows or vice versa.
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dallasp
winace
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