Labor force demographics also arguably favour emerging markets vis-a-vis the West. The charts below show forecasts for how the labor forces in both the emerging and the developed world are likely to evolve. “The more developed country total labor force will soon begin to shrink at an accelerating rate for many albeit not all developed countries,” writes ISI lead analyst and head of global demographics research Dick Hokenson in a recent report. “This implies slower real GDP growth unless productivity increases at a faster rate.”
Although the less developed country total labor force will essentially comprise all of the net growth in the world’s labour force,” says Hokenson, “the rate of increase slows from 1.86% per year from 2000-2010 to 1.43% per year this decade.”
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