Atiku had described IBB as an anti-democratic element and so shouldn’t benefit from democracy.
The two clashed in Lagos at the launch of a book, The Force of Justice, written in honour of retired Justice George Oguntade.
Since IBB declared openly his interest to run for the presidency in 2011 and Atiku’s return to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and acting president, Goodluck Jonathan’s interest for 2011, the stage is set for an epoch battle that will end with bloody nose for some of them. Power is like a bell. When you set it ringing it prevents you from hearing other noises. In line with this since Jonathan was confirmed the acting president another idea running for the presidency in 2011 has come to him. In an interview with Christian Amanpour of the Cable News Network (CNN) during his visit to the United States of America, concerning his plans in 2011, Jonathan had said that there are options for him if he wants to contest election. “I can re-contest as a vice president to anybody. I can contest as a president, because the laws allow me.” When the interviewer asked him if it is possible that he contests, Jonathan replied, “Yes, it is, of course.”
Political watchers see Jonathan’s penchant towards 2011 as the hand of Esau but the voice of Jacob. The arrowhead of this project is Obasanjo who is seen as throwing up Jonathan as an extension of his third term project that never saw the light of the day. With Jonathan in the saddle, Obasanjo will continue to be politically relevant.
After the decapitation of his third term plot, Obasanjo had to throw up an unwilling Umaru Yar’Adua as the presidential candidate of PDP and Jonathan who was battling to contest the Bayelsa gubernatorial election to start a fresh term after rounding off Dieprieye Alamieyeseigha’s term that suffered impeachment orchestrated by Obasanjo.
The call for Jonathan to run for 2011 is gathering momentum by the day. Even some northern elements have equally joined in this plan without prejudice to the zoning arrangement of the ruling party with the north yet to exhaust its two terms of four years each. In an interview with the Saturday Sun last Monday, former military administrator of Delta State, Col. John David Dungs (rtd), a northerner said the best for Nigeria today is Jonathan as the president and former Economic Financial Crime Commission (EFCC) chairman, Nuhu Ribadu as the running mate.
However, Obasanjo and others that are widwifing this idea may not succeed because of the position of most influential northern leaders who insist that the zoning formula of South and North on the rotation of the presidency of the PDP must be obeyed to the letter. This zonal arrangement is what stands the party out among others. According to them, altering it will erode the confidence the party enjoys from members.
IBB, no doubt is a Nigerian politician with a large clout. His influence cuts across the geo-political zones. Since his entry into the race, various groups supporting his aspiration are springing up in various states of the federation. The crowd that sympathised over the death of his wife last December gave him an impression that he still commands following among politicians, and then decided to gamble it. He has been able to keep his friends in and out of power since 1993. Like a soldier, IBB would not go into war without counting the cost. He has spent many years planning how to take a shot at the presidency. He sees this time as the auspicious opportunity to move on to actualise his ambition. He has reconciled with some of his enemies or breakaway disciples and breaking new grounds by making friends especially with new generation politicians who also see him as an enigma. In an interview with Saturday Sun recently, Dr. Godwin Dabo, president of Benue State Elders forum and PDP chieftain said that IBB is the best thing that has and will ever happen to Nigeria.
Similarly, PDP gubernatorial aspirant in Imo State Brady Nwosu said that at this time of our history, Nigeria does not need a weak presidency. According to him, Nigeria needs a charismatic and a visionary leader like IBB who would hold the country together.
Oppositions to IBB’s presidency mount. The Nigerian civil society groups said IBB remains indicted over the reckless spending of the $12.4b gulf war oil windfall, and other allegation of corruption. On this the former leader has said that any one that has any evidence of corruption against him should do the right and civilized thing by going to court to prove it.
Lending his voice to his master’s, Kassim Afegbua, IBBs’ media aide said the former president was not indicted by the Pius Okigbo report of the missing $12.4b and that the bulk of the money was spent on infrastructure development of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.
The greatest battle he is going to face is his reason of annulling the June 12 presidential election, the freest and fairest election ever conducted in Nigeria, which was presumed to have been won by his bosom friend, late M.K.O. Abiola. However, for those who think that IBB will not be accepted in the Southwest because of the June 12 issue may be disappointed.
Already some of the governors from the zone, Gbenga Daniel and Olagunsoye Oyinola are diehard associates of the general and they are ready to swim and sink with him. Former Lagos governor, Ahmed Tinubu another power broker from the region is a good student of politics, he knows where the power pendulum is swinging to and naturally would align accordingly. Having seen the writing on the wall, he might not oppose IBB’s aspiration if it becomes clear to him that he would be the candidate.
In the South East and South South, IBB may not encounter opposition serious given the position of things today. The scramble among stakeholders in these zones may be picking a running mate. But the South South position regarding backing for IBB may not be sure because the Jonathan factor is still there as they would prefer to produce the president than tag along someone else.
Interestingly, Tunde Bakare, a fierce cleric has said that IBB should be stoned and vowed to mobilize Nigerians against him as he did with the Save Nigeria Group against Yar’Adua. In 2006, when IBB was nursing the ambition of returning to power in 2007, Bakare had then declared that only God could stop IBB, not any man in Nigeria and had urged that God would just do that.
Also Femi Falana, president of West African Bar Association is ready to stop IBB. He has said it severally that he would engage IBB in many legal ways to make him account for the corruption that was the hallmark of his regime. Nwosu dismissed Falana. According to him if Falana were popular as he claims, he should have won in his ward when he contested the Ekiti gubernatorial election on the platform of National Conscience Party (NCP) But if Nwosu is not just sounding off for his boss, he should have known that election winning in Nigeria the PDP way is worlds apart from what popularity could do and would not serve as yardstick for assessing one’s strength.
Even among his own people, some radical groups are kicking against IBB. Col. Abubakar Umar (retd.), Balarabe Musa and some sections of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) are gearing up to truncate his ambition.
Obasanjo that stopped IBB last time is said to be supporting him, but with Jonathan’s presidency being championed by him, it may mean he has withdrawn his support for the former military president.
It is mooted that Obasanjo’s Plan B is for Jonathan to run with IBB, which even corroborated what Jonathan said during the interview with CNN that he can recontest as running mate.
For Atiku, his return to the PDP is raising some dusts in the camp. He has returned with the remnants of Peoples Democratic Movement, a political organisation set up by late Shehu Yar’Adua, elder brother of President Yar’Adua, which he inherited at the demise of the elderly Yar’Adua. The PDM was formidable and cut across the entire states of the federation. It was the backbone of PDP and what Atiku deployed to ensure that Obasanjo clinched the PDP presidential ticket at Jos convention in 1998 against Second Republic vice president, Alex Ekwueme.
Obasanjo rewarded Atiku with vice presidency. However, after assuming office and in order to go for the second term, Obasanjo set out to decimate the group. First, he had to strike the shepherd to scatter the sheep. He went for Atiku’s jugular, expelled him from the party and decapitated the PDM. Today PDM is illusory and the task of assembling it again is Herculean.
With this, getting the PDP presidential ticket may not be easy for Atiku. If the PDM structure had been in place, it wouldn’t have been difficult for Atiku to have his aspiration fulfilled.
The old Obasanjo is hard at forgiving and would deploy his war arsenal to frustrate Atiku because of the fear that Atiku would get back at him if he becomes the president. The formidable hurdle before Atiku is the PDP constitution, which if interpreted properly may rule him out of contesting the 2011 presidential election.
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